Now
that Mitt Romney has vanquished his opposition and is destined to be the GOP
nominee for the 2012 presidential election, the question is who will be his VP
selection? Over the next few months we
can expect Team Romney to audition numerous possible candidates through
interviews and joint campaign appearances.
Beyond the need for
some basic chemistry between Romney and his VP (sorry Newt, Rick, and Michele),
what factors are relevant? In this
post-Palin world of potential GOP VP nominees, we can expect a vigorous vetting
of all the potential candidates with an emphasis on selecting an individual who
is competent to assume the presidency on January 20, 2013. Theoretically, the ideal candidate will address
Romney’s perceived weaknesses: come
from a swing state, appeal to women and Latinos (a significant force in AZ, CO,
FL, NV, NM, VA, and NC), have foreign policy experience, be able to beat Joe
Biden in a debate, shore up support with tepid Tea Party supporters, and not
have transported the family dog on the roof of the family car during a vacation
to Canada (i.e., be a regular person who can relate to American families).
In today’s
Republican Party, this ideal VP candidate does not exist. Many of these requirements are
contradictory. A Tea Party favorite who
is popular among women and Latinos is as likely as Republican support for Bush
tax cut expiration. The death of the
moderate GOP wing where social issues were of secondary importance to economic
concerns has significantly reduced the pool of potential VP candidates.
Who are the
potential GOP VP’s and what are their chances?
Tea Party favorite
and Florida’s first-term Senator, Marco Rubio is the son of two Cuban
immigrants and hails from an important swing-state that Obama won in 2008.
Rubio’s draw backs are that the Latino vote is not a monolith; Cuban-Americans
often vote differently from those with Puerto Rican and Latin American
heritage. Rubio lacks foreign policy
experience and by voting against re-authorizing the Violence Against Women’s
Act may have further alienated women voters.
Finally, questions regarding his double billing the taxpayers and
inconsistencies in his rags-to-power biography remain unanswered.
An April Quinnipac
poll shows New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is the most popular VP
candidate. His budget cuts and
confrontational style against government employees’ unions have made him a Tea
Party darling. Christie lacks any
foreign policy experience and would not help Romney improve his standing with
women or Latinos. Further, recent polls
do not show a Romney-Christie ticket even carrying New Jersey for the GOP in
November. One intangible in Christie’s
favor, however, is his ability to be a very effective “attack dog” against
Obama on the campaign trail.
Wisconsin
Representative Paul Ryan who authored the Republican budget proposal that would
radically change government taxation and spending and programs such as Medicare
is considered the most influential Republican policy maker. His selection would strengthen Romney’s
support among Tea Partiers, as well; however, it would do little to improve
perceptions regarding women, Latinos, and the lack of foreign policy
experience. Further, Ryan’s proposals to
effectively end Medicare as we know it for people 55 and under might provide
the Democrats with a PR windfall: “the let them eat cake/let the seniors die”
ticket.
Rob Portman, a
senator from Ohio is on all the pundits’ short-lists; however, these
all-knowing prognosticators fail to offer convincing reasons why Romney should
consider him. While he hails from a state that has voted for
the winner in every presidential election since 1960, he is similar to Ryan. He does not address any of Romney’s
weaknesses and is not assured of putting Ohio in the GOP column in November.
While we can expect
Romney to make a show of considering women for the job, it is extremely
unlikely that one will be selected. Only
one has any foreign policy experience. Governor
Susana Martinez is a female Latino; yet, she has been a governor for only 16
months. This is one month less than
Sarah Palin, whose inexperience was a major distraction for the GOP in
2008. Governor Nikki Haley of South
Carolina has the same limited executive experience as Martinez and her support
of Romney was ineffective in the South Carolina primary. Gingrich won over 40% of the votes to
Romney’s 28%. Condolezza Rice, a US
Secretary of State for George W. Bush has the name recognition and foreign
policy experience. Or does she? She was intimately involved in the recent
US-Iraq War fiasco, and does Romney want to remind voters of the Bush
administration?
Since there is no
compelling candidate for the GOP VP nomination, it is anyone’s guess as to
Romney’s ultimate selection. Given the
conflicting nature of the preferred VP characteristics, we can expect the
Romney decision process to prioritize the most important requirements. Of course, it will be tempting to choose
Herman Cain who has said that he would deign to consider the job if the
position was offered. (Seriously!) The
three most critical constraints will be chemistry with Romney, doing no harm to
the ticket (i.e., no Palin-like surprises), and be acceptable to the
ultra-right wing elements of the GOP who now control the party. The veto power of this faction was recently
illustrated when they forced Romney to cower and abandon his foreign policy
spokesperson solely because he was gay.
Under these constraints, the field is wide open and Romney may surprise
us all by selecting a bland, nationally unknown GOP senator from the mid-west
with a super “traditional” family, conservative persona. A show hands for…South Dakota’s Senator John
Thune?
