Romney’s VP Selection Conundrum

Now that Mitt Romney has vanquished his opposition and is destined to be the GOP nominee for the 2012 presidential election, the question is who will be his VP selection?  Over the next few months we can expect Team Romney to audition numerous possible candidates through interviews and joint campaign appearances.

Beyond the need for some basic chemistry between Romney and his VP (sorry Newt, Rick, and Michele), what factors are relevant?  In this post-Palin world of potential GOP VP nominees, we can expect a vigorous vetting of all the potential candidates with an emphasis on selecting an individual who is competent to assume the presidency on January 20, 2013.  Theoretically, the ideal candidate will address Romney’s perceived weaknesses:   come from a swing state, appeal to women and Latinos (a significant force in AZ, CO, FL, NV, NM, VA, and NC), have foreign policy experience, be able to beat Joe Biden in a debate, shore up support with tepid Tea Party supporters, and not have transported the family dog on the roof of the family car during a vacation to Canada (i.e., be a regular person who can relate to American families). 

In today’s Republican Party, this ideal VP candidate does not exist.  Many of these requirements are contradictory.  A Tea Party favorite who is popular among women and Latinos is as likely as Republican support for Bush tax cut expiration.  The death of the moderate GOP wing where social issues were of secondary importance to economic concerns has significantly reduced the pool of potential VP candidates. 

Who are the potential GOP VP’s and what are their chances?

Tea Party favorite and Florida’s first-term Senator, Marco Rubio is the son of two Cuban immigrants and hails from an important swing-state that Obama won in 2008. Rubio’s draw backs are that the Latino vote is not a monolith; Cuban-Americans often vote differently from those with Puerto Rican and Latin American heritage.  Rubio lacks foreign policy experience and by voting against re-authorizing the Violence Against Women’s Act may have further alienated women voters.  Finally, questions regarding his double billing the taxpayers and inconsistencies in his rags-to-power biography remain unanswered.

An April Quinnipac poll shows New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is the most popular VP candidate.  His budget cuts and confrontational style against government employees’ unions have made him a Tea Party darling.  Christie lacks any foreign policy experience and would not help Romney improve his standing with women or Latinos.  Further, recent polls do not show a Romney-Christie ticket even carrying New Jersey for the GOP in November.  One intangible in Christie’s favor, however, is his ability to be a very effective “attack dog” against Obama on the campaign trail.

Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan who authored the Republican budget proposal that would radically change government taxation and spending and programs such as Medicare is considered the most influential Republican policy maker.  His selection would strengthen Romney’s support among Tea Partiers, as well; however, it would do little to improve perceptions regarding women, Latinos, and the lack of foreign policy experience.  Further, Ryan’s proposals to effectively end Medicare as we know it for people 55 and under might provide the Democrats with a PR windfall: “the let them eat cake/let the seniors die” ticket.

Rob Portman, a senator from Ohio is on all the pundits’ short-lists; however, these all-knowing prognosticators fail to offer convincing reasons why Romney should consider him.   While he hails from a state that has voted for the winner in every presidential election since 1960, he is similar to Ryan.  He does not address any of Romney’s weaknesses and is not assured of putting Ohio in the GOP column in November.

While we can expect Romney to make a show of considering women for the job, it is extremely unlikely that one will be selected.  Only one has any foreign policy experience.  Governor Susana Martinez is a female Latino; yet, she has been a governor for only 16 months.  This is one month less than Sarah Palin, whose inexperience was a major distraction for the GOP in 2008.  Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina has the same limited executive experience as Martinez and her support of Romney was ineffective in the South Carolina primary.  Gingrich won over 40% of the votes to Romney’s 28%.  Condolezza Rice, a US Secretary of State for George W. Bush has the name recognition and foreign policy experience.  Or does she?  She was intimately involved in the recent US-Iraq War fiasco, and does Romney want to remind voters of the Bush administration?

Since there is no compelling candidate for the GOP VP nomination, it is anyone’s guess as to Romney’s ultimate selection.  Given the conflicting nature of the preferred VP characteristics, we can expect the Romney decision process to prioritize the most important requirements.  Of course, it will be tempting to choose Herman Cain who has said that he would deign to consider the job if the position was offered.  (Seriously!) The three most critical constraints will be chemistry with Romney, doing no harm to the ticket (i.e., no Palin-like surprises), and be acceptable to the ultra-right wing elements of the GOP who now control the party.   The veto power of this faction was recently illustrated when they forced Romney to cower and abandon his foreign policy spokesperson solely because he was gay.  Under these constraints, the field is wide open and Romney may surprise us all by selecting a bland, nationally unknown GOP senator from the mid-west with a super “traditional” family, conservative persona.  A show hands for…South Dakota’s Senator John Thune?