Showing posts with label Mitt Romney. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mitt Romney. Show all posts

Monday, September 17, 2012

Two Americas?


“There’s class warfare alright, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.”  Warren Buffet, 3rd richest man on Forbes Richest Person List

“Let me tell you about the very rich.  They are different from you and me.”  F. Scott Fitzgerald

           
            Rich and poor America are drifting further apart, and the standard of living is eroding for the vast majority of Americans. Not since the pre-Great Depression 1920’s have the very top received such a large share of the nation’s income. This trend is detrimental to the long-term stability of this country and all its citizens, including the top 1% as it reduces opportunities that were previously available.  It is not irreversible; however, it requires an immediate response.

Over the past thirty years, the average household income of the top 1% (assumed to earn over $250K/year) compared to the bottom 90% has tripled from 14:1 to 42:1.  The median US family income has grown only at an annual rate of 0.36% while the top 1% realized a 278% aggregate increase during this period.  Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, notes in his recent book, “The Price of Inequality” (2012), that “The United States has the highest level of inequality among advanced industrial countries…[and]…We are now approaching the level of inequality that marks dysfunctional societies…including Iran, Jamaica, Uganda, and the Philippines.” As a result, the US middle class has shrunk, and the American tradition of equal opportunity is becoming a myth.  As income inequality increases, the ability to improve upon ones economic condition decreases. Stiglitz concludes that in America, a person’s success depends more on parental income than in other economically developed countries.
            Economists have identified numerous causes of America’s increasing inequality. The increasing regressive nature of the US tax system has benefited the top 1% disproportionately.  Taxes are now the smallest percentage of US GDP since 1950 due to the Reagan and Bush tax cuts.  Current tax rates are significantly less progressive, impacting those with lower incomes more.  For example, the top 1% benefit from 71% of all capital gains (because the lower economic classes have few capital assets, if any) which are taxed at only 15% (compared to the top marginal rate of 35% for salaries and wages which is virtually all of the lower class income).    Lower wages over the past thirty years have caused greater inequality.  The minimum wage has declined by almost 30% (in constant dollars), and union membership (which has the effect of raising wages of both union and non-union members) has dropped 40% to less than 12%.  Globalization has often been a “race to the bottom”.  Industry often relocates to the lowest cost producer, leaving low-paying “service” jobs behind.  Deregulation and less supervision have allowed the financial sector to increase the economic inequality through predatory lending, excessive credit card fees, and complex and high-risk “financial innovations” that few understand.
Historically, the economic meltdowns in 1929 and 2008 and the economic calamity that followed were preceded by sharp increases in inequality.  In contrast, from the 1950’s through the 1970’s, a period of economic stability and growth, inequality declined.  Stiglitz argues that   “inequality gives rise to instability, the instability itself gives rise to more inequality.” Economic inequality causes money to go from those who will spend it (the lower economic classes) and create further economic demand to those who are well off (the top 1%) and cannot spend it all.  As the cycle progresses, the lack of demand causes increased unemployment and those without go further into debt to obtain necessities.
Economic instability leads to social instability.  As income inequality increases, there is reduced contact among all Americans, and there are fewer shared experiences.  The 1% may live in gated communities and send their children to private schools.  The wealthy become less willing to spend on common needs; they do not depend upon public parks, schools, medical care, research, or security.  They can purchase their own.  Consequently, government investment declines.  Studies have also shown that increasing income inequality correlates with increasing crime rates, and decreasing trust, health care, and community involvement, such as voting and volunteerism. 
Further challenges to social stability arise from the erosion of the United States’ tradition of fairness and equal opportunity for all.  A very small segment of our community has growing and disproportionate power that benefits them and adversely impacts the vast majority.  Americans are realizing that they were duped by those advocated the Bush and Reagan tax cuts.   Contrary to the continued assertions of some, Alan Krueger, Chairman of the Council of Economic Affairs, confirms “that there is little empirical evidence that reduced tax rates increased income growth, jobs or business formation.”  They were successful, however, in turning budget surpluses into record-breaking deficits that add to the national debt.  The decade after passage of the Bush tax cuts exhibited the lowest average annual growth after WWII – even if the years after 2007 (when the economy imploded) are omitted.  For the GOP presidential nominee to identify the top 1% as “job creators” who need even greater tax cuts is sophistry and ignores history.  In response to the 2008 financial crisis, the US spent far more to bail out banks and maintain banker bonuses than to help the unemployed – people who lost their jobs because of financial institution irresponsibility. 
America needs a vibrant middle class.  It is the purchases of goods and services by this group that stimulates demand and investment, thus increasing employment and wages.  The tax cut for those earning over $250,000 should not be extended again.  There needs to be shared-sacrifice.  The lower classes have seen incomes remain flat, at best, while government programs that directly affect them have been slashed; yet, the top 1% has escaped economic decline.  It is absurd to argue that a tax rate increase to 39.6% from 35% will provide a disincentive for the high income wage earners.  The United States economy did extremely well with less inequality and debt when the top rate was 70% as it was before Reagan took office, and as noted above, the tax cuts have not yielded the economic cornucopia that was promised (and is still being promised) to promote their adoption.  Research shows that the top save approximately 20% of their income and the bottom economic classes spend all their income and more for necessities.  Consequently, economic demand is lower and employment is reduced than if the bottom had more to spend.  Stiglitz estimates that if the top saved only 15% instead of 20%, the unemployment rate would be just over 6%, instead of the current 8+%.  The current capital gains taxation structure requires change, as well.  Think about it; is it in society’s interest to tax the income of investors and speculators at a lower rate (15%) than a wage earner (up to 35%)? 
Just as was done in the Progressive Era and after the Great Depression, we need to temper financial markets, and increase social and economic stability through a strengthened Social Security program, minimum wage laws, and affordable health care.  Privatization is not always the answer.    Unlike government employees, corporate executives are paid to generate profits; the private sector should not be relied upon to regulate themselves or handle certain activities when their profit-maximization incentives are not aligned with the public interest.  The increasing wage gap between those with a college education and those without and the migration of off-shore of technical jobs, provide ample evidence that greater efforts must be made to provide affordable education.  Globalization is here to stay, but it has to be managed better.  Operating unchecked, the prevailing wage for an unskilled worker in the US would be that of a similar worker in China.  Finally, the political system must be made more responsive to the concerns of all citizens, not just those with the largest bank accounts
Horatio Alger with his rags to riches story is not dead; however, he needs immediate and heroic efforts to get off life support.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Newt Will Seek Revenge

Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich (Daily Kos)
Newt Gingrich is most likely going to lose Florida this evening.  That does not matter.

Mitt Romney has spent $16 Million destroying Gingrich's reputation.  Gingrich is going to stay in the fight because Romney has destroyed Newt twice, in Iowa and Florida.  I do not see Newt as the forgiving type, so what goes around comes around.

Newt will stay in the fight to try and do damage to Romney because he is the reason why Newt may not win the nomination.


Saturday, January 14, 2012

Paging Ronald Reagan, Paging Ronald Reagan

                      With the GOP Nomination less than five months away, three presidential candidates are fighting for the attention of the GOP voters.  None of them have any key policy differences.  They all have similar policies regarding health care, taxes, the budget, and the deficit.  They are trying to distinguish themselves by their experience and their anti-Obama fervor.  The GOP’s only hope at this stage is bringing Ronald Reagan back from the grave.
            Currently, the Republican front runners are Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich.  Rick Santorum is a former Senator from Pennsylvania.  After finishing in a close second in the Iowa Caucus, he has captivated the Media and undecided GOP voters.  He does not have a strong chance at winning the election because of his more conservative, religious views on issues, such as, abortion.  
               Former House Speaker, Newt Gingrich, could win the GOP nomination if he does well in South Carolina and in Florida.   The biggest problem for him is splitting the vote between himself and Rick Santorum.  By default, Mitt Romney would defeat both him and Rick Santorum.  Many people anticipate him "self-destructing".  (SEE: Incident on Air Force One about 15 years ago.) 
            Lastly, former governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney is the leading GOP candidate.  As front runner, he tries to avoid  controversy and emphasizes his business experience and his tenure as chief executive of Massachusetts.  Paradoxically, his current positions regarding health care and taxes are contrary to his policies as governor.  By placing second in the 2008 GOP Primary, he has the experience and name-recognition to win the   current primary.  He may be similar to McCain who lost to Bush in 2000, and won the primary in 2008.  Romney’s relatively moderate views will help him win primaries in more liberal states.  His recent victories in Iowa and New Hampshire have given him momentum, the question is: can he maintain that momentum?  With candidates dropping out after South Carolina and Florida, they could flock to a candidate besides Mitt Romney. 
            There are some other notable candidates such as Jon Hunstman and Ron Paul.  Jon Hunstman is the former Governor of Utah.  As the most moderate candidate and a former ambassador to China for Obama, he has low odds of winning the primary.  He did not win the New Hampshire primary so he is probably not going to win the nomination because he was betting solely on New Hampshire.   Ron Paul, a Congressman from Texas, ran in the 2008 election and tries to have a Libertarian stand-point.  His second place finish in the New Hampshire Primary is a good sign for him.  However, he is too far right. 
               When voters are deciding who to nominate for president, generally, they prefer a variety to choose from. In this case, the differences are superficial.  The only difference among the GOP candidates is their limited experience.  There is no distinguishing issue among the GOP candidates.  The three front runners have no disagreement on the major issues, such as the budget, the deficit, health care, or the economy.  They all want a balanced budget that would consist of no new taxes and rely solely on spending cuts.   They seek deficit reduction in the next decade that relies in part on repealing Obama’s health care law.  It is irrelevant that economists argue that repealing the health care law would actually decrease the deficit and eliminate its potential savings.  The leading Republican candidates seek cuts in entitlement programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.  Intense attempts by Republican Party leaders to entice New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to enter the race, illustrate how weak the current GOP candidates are perceived to be.
               The strategy of appealing  to the more conservative voter on the political spectrum may be short-sighted.  This group does not decide elections; they only represent a small portion of the electorate.   Furthermore, this anti-incumbent fervor often does not work in the long run because the voters want to hear new ideas.  The voter wants solutions to what is important to them.  Right now, the GOP candidates’ policies are devoid of solutions and merely try to appeal to the typically more right wing primary voters. 
               Perhaps most significantly, none of the candidates are presidential.  They do not have the courage to stand up to the crowd.  For example, none of the candidates challenged the audience when it booed an active gay soldier who served in Iraq, cheered the number of executions in Texas under Rick Perry, or cheered someone dying because they lacked health insurance.   Americans are not a blood-thirsty horde in favor of government cruelty, and vengeance, or unwilling to support its troops.    If the GOP does resurrect Ronald Reagan from his grave, they should stop his turning in it first.