Monday, September 17, 2012

Two Americas?


“There’s class warfare alright, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.”  Warren Buffet, 3rd richest man on Forbes Richest Person List

“Let me tell you about the very rich.  They are different from you and me.”  F. Scott Fitzgerald

           
            Rich and poor America are drifting further apart, and the standard of living is eroding for the vast majority of Americans. Not since the pre-Great Depression 1920’s have the very top received such a large share of the nation’s income. This trend is detrimental to the long-term stability of this country and all its citizens, including the top 1% as it reduces opportunities that were previously available.  It is not irreversible; however, it requires an immediate response.

Over the past thirty years, the average household income of the top 1% (assumed to earn over $250K/year) compared to the bottom 90% has tripled from 14:1 to 42:1.  The median US family income has grown only at an annual rate of 0.36% while the top 1% realized a 278% aggregate increase during this period.  Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, notes in his recent book, “The Price of Inequality” (2012), that “The United States has the highest level of inequality among advanced industrial countries…[and]…We are now approaching the level of inequality that marks dysfunctional societies…including Iran, Jamaica, Uganda, and the Philippines.” As a result, the US middle class has shrunk, and the American tradition of equal opportunity is becoming a myth.  As income inequality increases, the ability to improve upon ones economic condition decreases. Stiglitz concludes that in America, a person’s success depends more on parental income than in other economically developed countries.
            Economists have identified numerous causes of America’s increasing inequality. The increasing regressive nature of the US tax system has benefited the top 1% disproportionately.  Taxes are now the smallest percentage of US GDP since 1950 due to the Reagan and Bush tax cuts.  Current tax rates are significantly less progressive, impacting those with lower incomes more.  For example, the top 1% benefit from 71% of all capital gains (because the lower economic classes have few capital assets, if any) which are taxed at only 15% (compared to the top marginal rate of 35% for salaries and wages which is virtually all of the lower class income).    Lower wages over the past thirty years have caused greater inequality.  The minimum wage has declined by almost 30% (in constant dollars), and union membership (which has the effect of raising wages of both union and non-union members) has dropped 40% to less than 12%.  Globalization has often been a “race to the bottom”.  Industry often relocates to the lowest cost producer, leaving low-paying “service” jobs behind.  Deregulation and less supervision have allowed the financial sector to increase the economic inequality through predatory lending, excessive credit card fees, and complex and high-risk “financial innovations” that few understand.
Historically, the economic meltdowns in 1929 and 2008 and the economic calamity that followed were preceded by sharp increases in inequality.  In contrast, from the 1950’s through the 1970’s, a period of economic stability and growth, inequality declined.  Stiglitz argues that   “inequality gives rise to instability, the instability itself gives rise to more inequality.” Economic inequality causes money to go from those who will spend it (the lower economic classes) and create further economic demand to those who are well off (the top 1%) and cannot spend it all.  As the cycle progresses, the lack of demand causes increased unemployment and those without go further into debt to obtain necessities.
Economic instability leads to social instability.  As income inequality increases, there is reduced contact among all Americans, and there are fewer shared experiences.  The 1% may live in gated communities and send their children to private schools.  The wealthy become less willing to spend on common needs; they do not depend upon public parks, schools, medical care, research, or security.  They can purchase their own.  Consequently, government investment declines.  Studies have also shown that increasing income inequality correlates with increasing crime rates, and decreasing trust, health care, and community involvement, such as voting and volunteerism. 
Further challenges to social stability arise from the erosion of the United States’ tradition of fairness and equal opportunity for all.  A very small segment of our community has growing and disproportionate power that benefits them and adversely impacts the vast majority.  Americans are realizing that they were duped by those advocated the Bush and Reagan tax cuts.   Contrary to the continued assertions of some, Alan Krueger, Chairman of the Council of Economic Affairs, confirms “that there is little empirical evidence that reduced tax rates increased income growth, jobs or business formation.”  They were successful, however, in turning budget surpluses into record-breaking deficits that add to the national debt.  The decade after passage of the Bush tax cuts exhibited the lowest average annual growth after WWII – even if the years after 2007 (when the economy imploded) are omitted.  For the GOP presidential nominee to identify the top 1% as “job creators” who need even greater tax cuts is sophistry and ignores history.  In response to the 2008 financial crisis, the US spent far more to bail out banks and maintain banker bonuses than to help the unemployed – people who lost their jobs because of financial institution irresponsibility. 
America needs a vibrant middle class.  It is the purchases of goods and services by this group that stimulates demand and investment, thus increasing employment and wages.  The tax cut for those earning over $250,000 should not be extended again.  There needs to be shared-sacrifice.  The lower classes have seen incomes remain flat, at best, while government programs that directly affect them have been slashed; yet, the top 1% has escaped economic decline.  It is absurd to argue that a tax rate increase to 39.6% from 35% will provide a disincentive for the high income wage earners.  The United States economy did extremely well with less inequality and debt when the top rate was 70% as it was before Reagan took office, and as noted above, the tax cuts have not yielded the economic cornucopia that was promised (and is still being promised) to promote their adoption.  Research shows that the top save approximately 20% of their income and the bottom economic classes spend all their income and more for necessities.  Consequently, economic demand is lower and employment is reduced than if the bottom had more to spend.  Stiglitz estimates that if the top saved only 15% instead of 20%, the unemployment rate would be just over 6%, instead of the current 8+%.  The current capital gains taxation structure requires change, as well.  Think about it; is it in society’s interest to tax the income of investors and speculators at a lower rate (15%) than a wage earner (up to 35%)? 
Just as was done in the Progressive Era and after the Great Depression, we need to temper financial markets, and increase social and economic stability through a strengthened Social Security program, minimum wage laws, and affordable health care.  Privatization is not always the answer.    Unlike government employees, corporate executives are paid to generate profits; the private sector should not be relied upon to regulate themselves or handle certain activities when their profit-maximization incentives are not aligned with the public interest.  The increasing wage gap between those with a college education and those without and the migration of off-shore of technical jobs, provide ample evidence that greater efforts must be made to provide affordable education.  Globalization is here to stay, but it has to be managed better.  Operating unchecked, the prevailing wage for an unskilled worker in the US would be that of a similar worker in China.  Finally, the political system must be made more responsive to the concerns of all citizens, not just those with the largest bank accounts
Horatio Alger with his rags to riches story is not dead; however, he needs immediate and heroic efforts to get off life support.

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